This made gruesome viewing during Michael Caley‘s xG roundup of yesterday’s Europa League games:
xG map for @AZAlkmaar-Augsburg. Man oh man does that look like a harsh result for AZ.
— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) October 22, 2015
I don’t actually have Europa League data, but I thought it would be fun on a Friday afternoon to find all the games where the team with superior xG has been defeated 1-0 by the lowest xG shot in the game. Here is the small and miserable group:
|Date||Home Team||Away Team||Home Score||Away Score||Winning Goal xG||Home xG||Away xG|
|2013-10-21 19:00:00||Celta de Vigo||Levante||0||1||0.027402||1.06464||0.343559|
|2014-04-12 15:07:00||Stoke City||Newcastle United||1||0||0.029598||1.142455||1.444735|
|2014-05-18 17:00:00||Real Valladolid||Granada CF||0||1||0.027402||0.948084||0.605783|
|2014-12-28 15:00:00||Hull City||Leicester City||0||1||0.031815||1.865783||0.251423|
|2015-02-07 19:00:00||Evian Thonon Gaillard||Bordeaux||0||1||0.03291||0.62993||0.358794|
Of these, the most savage seems to be Hull and Leicester’s Christmas relegation bout, decided by a bouncing Mahrez shot from outside the box, and not cancelled out despite Hull’s 19 shots during the game. A bit of luck apparently goes a long way, and we all know how this tale ended for the two teams involved, with Hull relegated, and Leicester’s luck continuing.