Ultimate xG Suckerpunches

This made gruesome viewing during Michael Caley‘s xG roundup of yesterday’s Europa League games:

xG map for @AZAlkmaar-Augsburg. Man oh man does that look like a harsh result for AZ.

— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) October 22, 2015

I don’t actually have Europa League data, but I thought it would be fun on a Friday afternoon to find all the games where the team with superior xG has been defeated 1-0 by the lowest xG shot in the game. Here is the small and miserable group:

Date Home Team Away Team Home Score Away Score Winning Goal xG Home xG Away xG
2013-10-21 19:00:00 Celta de Vigo Levante 0 1 0.027402 1.06464 0.343559
2014-04-12 15:07:00 Stoke City Newcastle United 1 0 0.029598 1.142455 1.444735
2014-05-18 17:00:00 Real Valladolid Granada CF 0 1 0.027402 0.948084 0.605783
2014-10-05 16:00:00 Guingamp Nantes 0 1 0.02931 1.259913 0.814567
2014-12-28 15:00:00 Hull City Leicester City 0 1 0.031815 1.865783 0.251423
2015-02-07 19:00:00 Evian Thonon Gaillard Bordeaux 0 1 0.03291 0.62993 0.358794

Of these, the most savage seems to be Hull and Leicester’s Christmas relegation bout, decided by a bouncing Mahrez shot from outside the box, and not cancelled out despite Hull’s 19 shots during the game. A bit of luck apparently goes a long way, and we all know how this tale ended for the two teams involved, with Hull relegated, and Leicester’s luck continuing.

Ultimate xG Suckerpunches

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