This made gruesome viewing during Michael Caley‘s xG roundup of yesterday’s Europa League games:
xG map for @AZAlkmaar-Augsburg. Man oh man does that look like a harsh result for AZ.
— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) October 22, 2015
I don’t actually have Europa League data, but I thought it would be fun on a Friday afternoon to find all the games where the team with superior xG has been defeated 1-0 by the lowest xG shot in the game. Here is the small and miserable group:
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Home Score | Away Score | Winning Goal xG | Home xG | Away xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-10-21 19:00:00 | Celta de Vigo | Levante | 0 | 1 | 0.027402 | 1.06464 | 0.343559 |
| 2014-04-12 15:07:00 | Stoke City | Newcastle United | 1 | 0 | 0.029598 | 1.142455 | 1.444735 |
| 2014-05-18 17:00:00 | Real Valladolid | Granada CF | 0 | 1 | 0.027402 | 0.948084 | 0.605783 |
| 2014-10-05 16:00:00 | Guingamp | Nantes | 0 | 1 | 0.02931 | 1.259913 | 0.814567 |
| 2014-12-28 15:00:00 | Hull City | Leicester City | 0 | 1 | 0.031815 | 1.865783 | 0.251423 |
| 2015-02-07 19:00:00 | Evian Thonon Gaillard | Bordeaux | 0 | 1 | 0.03291 | 0.62993 | 0.358794 |
Of these, the most savage seems to be Hull and Leicester’s Christmas relegation bout, decided by a bouncing Mahrez shot from outside the box, and not cancelled out despite Hull’s 19 shots during the game. A bit of luck apparently goes a long way, and we all know how this tale ended for the two teams involved, with Hull relegated, and Leicester’s luck continuing.
Deep xG 