Premier League

Mid-Season Goalkeeper Review

Thom Lawrence, , , 6 Comments

Having descended into the quagmire of defensive metrics and never really returned, I thought it was about time to break my 2016 duck and publish something. Given that I occasionally spot people arguing in obscure forums pointing at the last iteration, I thought it was time to update my keeper ratings:

Keeper Mins Shots Saves Goals Save % Expected Saves ± Expected Average Difficulty Rating
Mark Bunn 188 6 5 1 83% 3.87 1.13 35.56 129.32
Fraser Forster 188 1 1 0 100% 0.86 0.14 14.45 116.89
Michel Vorm 94 1 1 0 100% 0.86 0.14 14.06 116.36
Karl Darlow 94 4 3 1 75% 2.62 0.38 34.53 114.56
Paulo Gazzaniga 187 11 8 3 73% 7.07 0.93 35.72 113.14
Alex McCarthy 565 34 29 5 85% 26.28 2.72 22.70 110.34
Sergio Romero 375 9 7 2 78% 6.47 0.53 28.14 108.24
Darren Randolph 286 12 8 4 67% 7.43 0.57 38.08 107.67
Adrián 1790 89 69 20 78% 64.11 4.89 27.96 107.62
Joe Hart 1871 60 46 14 77% 43.38 2.62 27.71 106.05
Hugo Lloris 1963 67 51 16 76% 48.10 2.90 28.20 106.02
Jack Butland 1972 100 78 22 78% 73.66 4.34 26.34 105.89
Declan Rudd 751 40 28 12 70% 26.51 1.49 33.73 105.63
Petr Cech 1967 86 68 18 79% 66.03 1.97 23.22 102.99
Kelvin Davis 95 7 5 2 71% 4.87 0.13 30.43 102.67
David de Gea 1591 64 46 18 72% 44.98 1.02 29.72 102.27
Heurelho Gomes 1948 83 60 23 72% 59.92 0.08 27.80 100.13
Thibaut Courtois 997 52 36 16 69% 35.99 0.01 30.79 100.03
Costel Pantilimon 1599 103 71 32 69% 71.01 -0.01 31.06 99.99
Kasper Schmeichel 2079 86 60 26 70% 60.21 -0.21 29.99 99.66
Artur Boruc 1604 62 38 24 61% 38.25 -0.25 38.31 99.35
Tim Howard 2069 107 75 32 70% 77.08 -2.08 27.96 97.30
John Ruddy 1316 63 38 25 60% 39.45 -1.45 37.37 96.31
Wayne Hennessey 1498 50 33 17 66% 34.45 -1.45 31.11 95.80
Tim Krul 754 49 33 16 67% 34.61 -1.61 29.36 95.34
Lukasz Fabianski 1979 85 56 29 66% 59.45 -3.45 30.06 94.19
Vito Mannone 376 23 15 8 65% 15.94 -0.94 30.69 94.09
Boaz Myhill 2077 92 63 29 68% 66.98 -3.98 27.19 94.05
Simon Mignolet 1889 65 42 23 65% 44.66 -2.66 31.29 94.04
Robert Elliot 1224 63 42 21 67% 44.82 -2.82 28.86 93.72
Willy Caballero 187 17 12 5 71% 12.83 -0.83 24.55 93.55
Asmir Begovic 1079 50 33 17 66% 35.75 -2.75 28.50 92.31
Brad Guzan 1897 99 64 35 65% 71.53 -7.53 27.75 89.48
Maarten Stekelenburg 1599 49 30 19 61% 34.38 -4.38 29.83 87.26
Jordan Pickford 93 11 7 4 64% 8.10 -1.10 26.40 86.47
Adam Federici 422 24 11 13 46% 13.16 -2.16 45.15 83.56
Adam Bogdan 93 5 2 3 40% 2.90 -0.90 42.03 69.00

So many narratives, so little time:

  • If only they’d dropped Guzan sooner – Bunn in his tiny sample has risen to the top of the class. Similarly, Southampton have finally got Forster back again and they too aren’t looking back.
  • Tim Howard isn’t that bad, get over it.
  • Petr Cech isn’t single-handedly winning Arsenal the title, get over it.
  • Jordan Pickford didn’t have the best of times deputising for Costel Pantilimon, the mathematical definition of the average goalkeeper.
  • Artur Boruc has slowly clawed his way back, and Bournemouth are no longer conceding every time their opponents so much as look at the ball.
  • Someone needs to rescue Alex McCarthy, he should have been going to the Euros this Summer.
  • Adrian is a pretty solid number 1 given the minutes under his belt.

Anyway, apologies for the wait. Lots of stuff I can’t talk about is going on behind the scenes, but there will be some cool stuff up here soon enough. Well, hopefully.

Mid-Season Goalkeeper Review

Goals Conceded Likelihood

Thom Lawrence, , , , Leave a comment

Having generated some expected save numbers with my new model, I thought it’d be interesting to see who has been dodging their luck so far this season. So given each team’s shots against and average xS, it’s easy to simulate the likelihood that each team’s goals conceded should be where it is or better:

Team Shots Condeded xS Likelihood
Tottenham Hotspur 32 5 77% 22%
Arsenal 41 8 74% 24%
Crystal Palace 42 8 77% 34%
Manchester City 24 8 75% 87%
Manchester United 33 9 68% 36%
Swansea City 36 9 75% 57%
Liverpool 30 10 70% 72%
Watford 38 10 68% 30%
Stoke City 47 10 70% 12%
Everton 43 11 72% 44%
West Bromwich Albion 42 11 75% 66%
Southampton 27 13 64% 93%
West Ham United 47 14 66% 34%
Aston Villa 46 15 76% 92%
Leicester City 42 17 65% 83%
Bournemouth 35 17 59% 85%
Newcastle United 54 18 71% 81%
Sunderland 52 19 69% 84%
Chelsea 53 20 66% 77%
Norwich City 45 20 60% 79%

So of the teams with the tightest defences, only Man City can really be trusted so far. Further down, Everton are outperforming by a goal or so, and the West Ham number sticks out, especially given that they’re this season’s most popular football analytics whipping-boy. They’re actually only a couple of shots better off than they should be, but because they’re facing tougher shots, the distribution is wider:

west-ham-conceded

Near the other end of the spectrum, my model’s pretty confident that things aren’t going to get worse at Aston Villa – they’re currently four goals down from where they likely should be:

aston-villa-conceded

Goals Conceded Likelihood

Tim Sherwood: “85% of the teams who concede first lose”

Thom Lawrence, , , Leave a comment

Miguel Delaney picked up on a nugget of Tim Sherwood gold after Aston Villa’s defeat to Chelsea today:

Sherwood: “First goal is the most important, 85% of the teams who concede first lose.”

— Miguel Delaney (@MiguelDelaney) October 17, 2015

I thought I’d run the numbers for various leagues I have available:

First to Concede Games Losses Draws Wins
Home 2731 1704 (62.4%) 595 432
Away 3696 2738 (74.1%) 645 313
Total 6427 4442 (69.1%) 1240 745

In the Premier League alone since 2011, away teams have trailed first 946 times and gone on to lose 682 times, 72.1% of time. So he’s not enormously far off, but far enough that it’s clear he’s making it up.

Tim Sherwood, 85% of the time, he’s right every time.

Tim Sherwood: “85% of the teams who concede first lose”