Miguel Delaney picked up on a nugget of Tim Sherwood gold after Aston Villa’s defeat to Chelsea today:

Sherwood: “First goal is the most important, 85% of the teams who concede first lose.”

— Miguel Delaney (@MiguelDelaney) October 17, 2015

I thought I’d run the numbers for various leagues I have available:

First to Concede	Games	Losses	Draws	Wins
Home	2731	1704 (62.4%)	595	432
Away	3696	2738 (74.1%)	645	313
Total	6427	4442 (69.1%)	1240	745

In the Premier League alone since 2011, away teams have trailed first 946 times and gone on to lose 682 times, 72.1% of time. So he’s not enormously far off, but far enough that it’s clear he’s making it up.

Tim Sherwood, 85% of the time, he’s right every time.