Goals Conceded Likelihood

Having generated some expected save numbers with my new model, I thought it’d be interesting to see who has been dodging their luck so far this season. So given each team’s shots against and average xS, it’s easy to simulate the likelihood that each team’s goals conceded should be where it is or better:

Team Shots Condeded xS Likelihood
Tottenham Hotspur 32 5 77% 22%
Arsenal 41 8 74% 24%
Crystal Palace 42 8 77% 34%
Manchester City 24 8 75% 87%
Manchester United 33 9 68% 36%
Swansea City 36 9 75% 57%
Liverpool 30 10 70% 72%
Watford 38 10 68% 30%
Stoke City 47 10 70% 12%
Everton 43 11 72% 44%
West Bromwich Albion 42 11 75% 66%
Southampton 27 13 64% 93%
West Ham United 47 14 66% 34%
Aston Villa 46 15 76% 92%
Leicester City 42 17 65% 83%
Bournemouth 35 17 59% 85%
Newcastle United 54 18 71% 81%
Sunderland 52 19 69% 84%
Chelsea 53 20 66% 77%
Norwich City 45 20 60% 79%

So of the teams with the tightest defences, only Man City can really be trusted so far. Further down, Everton are outperforming by a goal or so, and the West Ham number sticks out, especially given that they’re this season’s most popular football analytics whipping-boy. They’re actually only a couple of shots better off than they should be, but because they’re facing tougher shots, the distribution is wider:

west-ham-conceded

Near the other end of the spectrum, my model’s pretty confident that things aren’t going to get worse at Aston Villa – they’re currently four goals down from where they likely should be:

aston-villa-conceded

Goals Conceded Likelihood

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